The blue area highlighted shows the fading La Niña. Think of this lingering atmospheric pattern as the ghost of La Niña. Warm water near Indonesia may continue to drive rising motion and increased thunderstorm activity there and contribute to an overall favorable atmospheric pattern for Atlantic hurricanes similar to a La Niña, even if the La Niña itself fizzles. Get This First Aid Kit And Be Prepared For The Storm (SPONSORED) This was one factor behind a record 30 named storms in 2020.īut while La Niña may be fading, its influence on the atmosphere may not fade in time for hurricane season. Such was the case in 2020, when La Niña intensified to become the strongest in 10 years. La Niñas typically correspond to more active hurricane seasons because the cooler Eastern Pacific water produces weaker trade winds and less wind shear in the Caribbean Sea that would otherwise rip apart hurricanes and tropical systems trying to develop. ![]() How Much of a Role Will La Niña Play?Įl Niño/La Niña, the periodic warming/cooling of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, can shift weather patterns and influence winds in the Atlantic Basin during hurricane season.Įarly April 2021 model-based forecast probabilities for La Niña (blue bars), neutral (gray bars) and El Niño (red bars) through the end of 2021. Hurricanes need a rather precise set of ingredients to come together in order for them to fester, so all of these ingredients will need to be monitored this year. Even if water temperatures are boiling and there is little wind shear, dry air can still disrupt developing tropical cyclones and even prohibit their birth. How much dry air rolls off the coast of Africa will also need to be monitored. The prevalence of wind shear and dry air across the Atlantic will also need to be watched over the next six to eight months. Conversely, below-average ocean temperatures can lead to fewer tropical systems than if waters were warmer.Īssuming atmospheric factors are favorable, warmer waters in the MDR allow tropical waves, the formative engines that can eventually become tropical storms, to get closer to the Caribbean and the U.S. ()Īn above-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes is more likely if temperatures in the main development region (MDR) between Africa and the Caribbean Sea are warmer than average. Parts of the Gulf of Mexico are also warmer than average, although portions of the northern Gulf are close to average.įorecast sea-surface temperature anomalies (in degrees Celsius) for August-October 2021 from the CFSv2 model, as of early May 2021. ![]() Much of the Atlantic Basin's waters are already warmer than average, particularly in the subtropics near Bermuda and off parts of the East Coast. ![]() One of the ingredients that meteorologists, including those at The Weather Company and CSU, analyze going into the hurricane season is the water temperature of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Here are some questions and answers about what this outlook means. This forecast is similar to the April outlook issued by Colorado State University. Warmer sea surface temperature data and recent computer forecast models indicate a slightly busier season may be ahead compared to what was forecast in early April. ![]() (MORE: 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Names )Ī record 30 named storms formed in the 2020 hurricane season, 14 of which became hurricanes. "The latest data and forecasts suggest a slightly more aggressive forecast for 2021 is in order, although still nothing close to what happened in 2020," Crawford said. The Weather Company outlook is based on a number of factors, including Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures, La Niña and other teleconnections, computer model forecast guidance and past hurricane seasons exhibiting similar atmospheric conditions. Current 2021 hurricane season outlooks from Colorado State University and The Weather Company, compared to a 1991-2020 average season.
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